Last March, global warming fanatic Al Gore used a picture of two polar bears purportedly stranded on melting ice off the coast of Alaska as a visual aide to support his claim that man-made global warming is doing great harm to Mother Earth. Cornwall, Vermont temperatures appear to have slowly increased during the past century - about 1/2.time to break out the lifeboats. Was at a minimum and the planet was stuck in the Little Ice Age." The Canadian expert concludes, "CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales. . In the case of climate change, mitigation can be viewed as an effort to reduce the chance of climate change impacts (Goldemberg., 1996,. . Retrieved Creutzig, Felix; McGlynn, Emilie; Minx, Jan; Edenhofer, Ottmar (2011). The picture, wrongly credited to Dan Crosbie, an ice observer specialist for the Canadian Ice Service, was actually taken by Amanda Byrd while she was on a university-related research cruise in August of 2004, a time. Since noaa-14 was warming significantly relative to noaa-15, this puts a stronger warming trend into their satellite datasets, raising the temperature of all subsequent satellites measurements after about 2000. The hockey stick was broken. .
This version: ipcc website. A.;., "Ch 10: Global Climate Projections Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis, Sec Synthesis of Projected Global Temperature at Year 2100, in ipcc AR4 WG1 2007 a b Schneider,. 12 13 Contents Scenarios edit See also: Climate change scenario and Climate change mitigation scenarios One of the economic aspects of climate change is producing scenarios of future economic development. Given the general level of science literacy of most public school teachers, particularly in the lower grades, we wonder from where the course materials would come. . Introduction Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change, Total GHG emissions, in ipcc AR4 WG3 2007,. . Those Brits just don't seem to have a sense of humor. 50 51 For the six illustrative sres scenarios, ipcc (2001) 50 projected the concentration of CO 2 in the year 2100 as ranging between 540 and 970 parts-per-million (ppm). Uncertainties such as the removal of carbon from the atmosphere by " sinks " (e.g., forests) increase the projected range to between 490 and 1,260 ppm. 95 Studies were noted that provided cost estimates of adaptation at regional level,.g., for sea-level rise. 140 As uncertainty is reduced, the integrated models used in producing costbenefit analysis might become more realistic and useful. Seems Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels claimed the Cascade glaciers were melting, and Albright, in charge of the glacier studies, said they weren't. .
115 This involves financial leveraging, whereby public financing is used to encourage private investment. 90 Sensitivity analysis allows critical assumptions in the analysis to be changed. J.;., "Chapter 7: Industry, Settlement and Society Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability,.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities, in ipcc AR4 WG2 2007 Fisher,. 54 For a given increase in the atmospheric concentration of GHGs, high estimates of climate sensitivity suggest that relatively more future warming will occur, while low estimates of climate sensitivity suggest that relatively less future warming will occur. This is the killer word - the Colt.45 of sloppy or even deliberately misleading science. . Let's start with those poor little Polar Bears, taking their swim in the vast, empty Arctic ocean, just before they drown. . 6 a full essay about global warming 69 It is also impossible to know the preferences of future generations, which affects the valuation of costs and benefits. Journal of Historical Geography. The optimal target was defined as the concentration that would result in the lowest reduction in the present value (i.e., discounted) of global consumption. The percentage absorption of all three lines combined can be very generously estimated at about 8 of the whole IR spectrum, which means that 92 of the "heat" passes right through without being absorbed by CO2. . What he probably doesn't know is that mother nature puts 24,000 times that amount of our main greenhouse gas - water vapor - into the atmosphere every day, and removes about the same amount every day. .
What is potentially more alarming, is that some of the early knee-jerk scientists that were so quick to jump on the climate panic bandwagon are now fighting desperately to save their careers by deliberately producing falsified data in a last-ditch. Report website a b c Goldemberg,.;., "Introduction: Scope of the assessment Sec.3.2 Sequential decision making, ipcc SAR WG3 1996,. . "Overview: Changing the Climate for Development. The "optimal" levels of mitigation and adaptation are then resolved by comparing the marginal costs of action with the marginal benefits of avoided climate change damages (Toth., 2001:654). (2001:940941) predicted that few developing countries would have the capacity to efficiently adapt to climate change. Heaven forbid any publication calling itself an "International Weekly Journal of Science" from actually publishing any science that hinged on mathematics. . One approach considers the problem from the perspective of who benefits most from the public good.
Deep sea carbon reservoirs once superheated the Earth could it happen again? A near-term hedging strategy concerned with reducing future climate impacts might favour stringent, near-term emissions reductions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. One of our readers, Peter. (2007) concluded that there were few high quality studies in this area, and placed low confidence in the results of costbenefit analysis. 85 Some authors have focused on a disaggregated analysis of climate change impacts. 957958) concluded, with medium confidence, that: climate change would increase income inequalities between and within countries. Sloppy scientists are as common as bad mechanics. We humans aren't all shaped by the same cookie cutter, and that's a blessing that has taken us as a species to the top of the food chain. We know that most of the other IR radiation bands slips through and doesn't get to do any heating at all.
In fact, the winds and convection currents and such keep the air stirred up constantly, so it may take 100-150 years for the CO2 you are exhaling right now to make it back into mother earth, where most of it is currently locked. Asia : Lal. Instead, Earth's sea surface temperatures show a massive 95 percent lagged correlation with the sunspot index." We'll talk about what a "correlation" means in a couple of minutes. "Climate Change India: Paris Beyond". A difficulty with public goods is determining who exactly benefits from the public good, although some estimates of the distribution a full essay about global warming of the costs and benefits of global warming have been made see above. 142 ipcc (2007b:15) concluded that reliable cost estimates for geoengineering options had not been published. Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change, Sec.1 Emissions scenarios, in ipcc AR4 WG3 2007 a b c d Rogner,.-H.;., "1. S.;., "Ch. Insurance and the Cost of Uncertainty Ahmad,. How do we end the panic? Pour a glass of ginger ale, sit it on the table, and see how long it takes to go "flat" at room temperature.
Regional costs were estimated as possibly being significantly different from the global average. All good news is news. "Even though the sun is brighter a full essay about global warming now than at any time in the past 8,000 years, the increase in direct solar input is not calculated to be sufficient to cause the past century's modest warming on its own. But by then we had been sharing our own independent research of the literature with others via email, and receiving a surprising amount of agreement back in return. "Climate Change and Disasters Risk and Policy". The linear regression line obtained from the statistical output is the "best-fitting" straight line that can be drawn through the data. . All bad news is climate change. . 39 Projections of convergence in the sres scenarios have been criticized for lacking objectivity ( Defra / HM Treasury, 2005). The hockey stick goes up on the big screen, and Gore boards a mechanical lift with cameras grinding, pointer in hand as he rises in unison with the blade of the stick which starts growing upward toward the ceiling. .
Some early studies suggested that a uniform carbon tax would be a fair and efficient way of reducing emissions (Banuri., 1996,. . An alternative approach to having a Pigouvian tax is one based on property rights. 4: Intertemporal Equity, Discounting, and Economic Efficiency ipcc SAR WG3 1996,. . Green squares from noaa ncdc. We don't call ourselves the Green Mountain State for nothing.
Other difficulties with impact estimates are listed below: Knowledge gaps : Calculating distributional impacts requires detailed geographical knowledge, but these are a major source of uncertainty in climate models. The Internet - last bastion of free speech and the only significant outlet for empirical science, is slowly gaining ground exposing the scam, but so far it's pretty much an imbalanced situation, since the Junk Scientists also. Inhofe, who sponsored the report is a minority Republican on the.S. Note the corrected version, below, in which neither today's temperatures nor the rate of warming are particularly unusual compared to the historical record. . In the case of emissions trading, this suggests that equity and efficiency can be addressed separately: equity is taken care of in the allocation of emission permits, and efficiency is promoted by the market system. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. B.; Tignor,.; Miller,.L. The optimal result of monetized CBA maximizes net benefits.
32 Reductions in the energy intensity of GDP and/or carbon intensity of energy will tend to reduce energy-related CO 2 emissions. On the same point, you could protest against the demolition of the rainforests. The easiest way to remove short-term variations, revealing any underlying trend, is to plot a moving average, performed in Waiting for Cooling (Fawcett Jones 2008). Summary - Exactly what have we learned here? The mud showed the past climate conditions: Warm summers left layers thick with one-celled fossils and fish scales. Let's pause and mention that the data above is not "raw" data. . In all three data-sets, the moving average shows no sign that the warming trend has reversed. That will buy a lot of SUV's, jets, and large mansions with mega-electric bills. . Christopher Williams on Reality Asserts Itself (5 parts Part 1 Climate Change and Waiting for Bruce Willis, Part 2 Wall Street to Planet Earth, Part 3 Has the Financial Success of Fracking Shut Down US Climate Change Policy? This is easily done by swapping the actual CO2 and Temperature graphs, as shown below. Economy hundreds of billions a year by 2090. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, and the liberal Democrats aren't about to believe anything he says, but we'll give him credit for being the first member of Congress to take a stand against the growing hysteria. .
Patterson's fishing profiles clearly revealed the sun's 87 and 210-year solar cyclesand the longer, 1500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles found since the 1980s in ice cores, tree rings, and fossil pollen. Retrieved Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1996). (2001) 29 found no strong patterns in the relationship between economic activity and GHG emissions. 5500 meters, pressure is halved from what it is at sea level. But neither of these are very likely to happen, as we shall soon see. 25 They allow for the description of factors which are difficult to quantify but are important in affecting future GHG emissions.
Risk aversion describes how willing or unwilling someone is to take risks. 97 This vulnerability was judged to have contributed to Africa's weak adaptive capacity, resulting in Africa having high vulnerability to future climate change. The coup de grace on the conservative side is the fact that CO2 is lagging temperature, and thus, they say, what happens next month can't possibly be affecting what is happening today. . This may suggest an approach where near-term emissions abatement is more modest. Information and skills : Information and trained personnel are required to assess and implement successful adaptation options. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (PDF).
Coral heads and Sargasso Sea sediments also leave Carbon 14 and Oxygen 18 clues to the past temperature of the earth. . Which is not good news. Future economic developments can, for example, affect how vulnerable society is to future climate change, 14 what the future impacts of climate change might be, as well as the level of future GHG emissions. Cost-effectiveness analysis aims to minimize net costs. However, some folks noticed a couple of significant and fairly well accepted climatological history facts to be conspicuously missing. . Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 78 As stated earlier, carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere, and to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO 2, emissions would need to be drastically reduced from their present level (refer to diagram opposite). Predicting the unpredictable and pricing the priceless" (PDF Limitations of Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change,. . This is because efficiency requires incentives to be forward-looking, and not retrospective (Goldemberg., 1996,. .
(1996:103104) summarized criticisms of such a system: A carbon tax would impose different burdens on countries due to existing differences in tax structures, resource endowments, and development. Retrieved International Monetary Fund (April 2008). To put it differently, stringent near-term emissions abatement can be seen as having an option value in allowing for lower, long-term stabilization targets. There's tons of research going on in this field as well. Projecting the Growth of Greenhouse-Gas Emissions" (PDF Part III: The Economics of Stabilisation, in Stern 2006 a b Fisher,. 84 Such investments may help to reduce the possibility of future climate damages or the costs of adaptation. The benefits of emissions reductions are included as part of the assessment. "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (PDF). This version: Printed by Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York,.Y.
But look closely: Those are shear lines, where the ice has broken, not "melted". . (2008 "The Economics of Climate Change American Economic Review, 98 (2 137, doi :.1257/aer.98.2.1, hdl : 11362/38452,. . And from that data, one can cherry-pick (as some have done ) to obtain any result he wants. . "India's Role in an International Legal Solution to the Global Climate Change Problem". However, the actual choice of stabilization target (e.g., 450 or 550 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent is not "decided" in the analysis. We both now know that CO2 can't possibly be the evil byproduct all the ballyhoo has been claiming, and in fact, our biologist friends tell us if we could increase the CO2 content a little more, the planet would be much the richer. The Antarctic Ice cover is currently the largest ever observed by satellite, and periodic ice shelf breakups are normal and correlate well with localized tectonic and geothermal activity along the Antarctic Peninsula. With high confidence, Nicholls. The challenge for airs as a global warming monitoring instrument is that it is cloud-limited, a problem that worsens as one gets closer to the surface of the Earth. 45 a b c DeCanio,. 71 The standard rule used by public and private decision makers is that a risk will be acceptable if the expected net present value is positive. 4 In scenario analysis, scenarios are developed that are based on differing assumptions of future development patterns. Into the Laboratory, it's time to go to work.
Well, satellites can measure ocean temperatures ( we'll talk more about that later ) but here in the.S., for example there are only 1221.S. Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios and Implications Climate Change 2001: Working Group III: Mitigation, Emissions and Other Results of the sres Scenarios, in ipcc TAR WG3 2001 Fisher,. Thus we can not say that these periods were necessarily "global". One liter) they have to be 28 Angstroms apart. 61 Another transfer for compensation exists between regions and populations. Memorandum by Defra/HM Treasury, paragraph. These cosmic rays enhance cloud formation, which, overall, has a cooling effect on the planet." "When the sun is less bright, more cosmic rays are able to get through to Earth's atmosphere, more clouds form and the planet cools. 612614, Sec Decision Making under Uncertainty. Keeping to the speed limit can also help the environment. To get the full picture on global warming, you need to view the Earth's entire heat content. Economics and Policy Issues in Climate Change.